Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution
[ad_1]
Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Burden by Risk 1990–2019 (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2020); http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-burden-by-risk-1990-2019
Burnett, R. et al. Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 9592–9597 (2018).
Google Scholar
Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) Burden by Risk 1990–2017 (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2018); http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2017-burden-risk-1990-2017
Health Impacts of PM2.5 (State of Global Air, 2022); https://www.stateofglobalair.org/health/pm
Vohra, K. et al. Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: results from GEOS-Chem. Environ. Res. 195, 110754 (2021).
Google Scholar
Lelieveld, J. et al. Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 7192–7197 (2019).
Google Scholar
Scovronick, N. et al. The impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate policy. Nat. Commun. 10, 2095 (2019).
Google Scholar
Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Tchung-Ming, S., Weitzel, M. & Van Dingenen, R. Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions. Clim. Change 163, 1501–1517 (2020).
Google Scholar
Markandya, A. et al. Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health 2, e126–e133 (2018).
Google Scholar
Liang, X. et al. Air quality and health benefits from fleet electrification in China. Nat. Sustain. 2, 962–971 (2019).
Google Scholar
Buonocore, J. J. et al. Health and climate benefits of different energy-efficiency and renewable energy choices. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 100–105 (2016).
Google Scholar
Wu, R. et al. Air quality and health benefits of China’s emission control policies on coal-fired power plants during 2005–2020. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 094016 (2019).
Google Scholar
Gallagher, C. L. & Holloway, T. Integrating air quality and public health benefits in U.S. decarbonization strategies. Front. Public Health 8, 563358 (2020).
Google Scholar
Thompson, T. M., Rausch, S., Saari, R. K. & Selin, N. E. A systems approach to evaluating the air quality co-benefits of US carbon policies. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 917–923 (2014).
Google Scholar
Peng, W., Yang, J., Lu, X. & Mauzerall, D. L. Potential co-benefits of electrification for air quality, health, and CO2 mitigation in 2030 China. Appl. Energy 218, 511–519 (2018).
Google Scholar
West, J. J. et al. Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 885–889 (2013).
Google Scholar
Choma, E. F. et al. Health benefits of decreases in on-road transportation emissions in the United States from 2008 to 2017. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2107402118 (2021).
Liu, Y. et al. Population aging might have delayed the alleviation of China’s PM2.5 health burden. Atmos. Environ. 270, 118895 (2021).
Google Scholar
Kruk, M. E. et al. High-quality health systems in the Sustainable Development Goals era: time for a revolution. Lancet Glob. Health 6, e1196–e1252 (2018).
Google Scholar
Chowdhury, S., Dey, S. & Smith, K. R. Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios. Nat. Commun. 9, 318 (2018).
Google Scholar
Yin, H. et al. Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost. Lancet Planet. Health 5, e356–e367 (2021).
Google Scholar
IPCC Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V., et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press,Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2021).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 1074–1084 (2020).
Google Scholar
O’Neill, B. C. et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Clim. Change 122, 387–400 (2014).
Google Scholar
Horowitz, L. W. et al. The GFDL global atmospheric chemistry-climate model AM4.1: model description and simulation characteristics. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002032 (2020).
Dunne, J. P. et al. The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015 (2020).
Krasting, J. P. et al. NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 Model Output Prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP Version 20180701. (Earth System Grid Federation, 2018); https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1414
International Futures (IFs) Modeling System V. 7. 45 (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2020); https://pardee.du.edu/access-ifs
Murray, C. L. et al. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 396, 1223–1249 (2020).
Google Scholar
Stanaway, J. D. et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet 392, 1923–1994 (2018).
Google Scholar
Hausfather, Z. & Peters, G. P. Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading. Nature 577, 618–620 (2020).
Google Scholar
Ou, Y. et al. Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2 °C? Science 374, 693–695 (2021).
Google Scholar
Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution (State of Global Air, 2020).https://www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/documents/2020-10/soga-2020-report-10-26_0.pdf
Coates, M. M. et al. Burden of disease among the world’s poorest billion people: an expert-informed secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease estimates. PLoS ONE 16, e0253073 (2021).
Google Scholar
Rao, S. et al. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 346–358 (2017).
Google Scholar
Tibrewal, K. & Venkataraman, C. Climate co-benefits of air quality and clean energy policy in India. Nat. Sustain. 4, 305–313 (2021).
Google Scholar
Fourth National Climate Assessment Vol. II (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018); https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA4.2018
IPCC Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2022).
Feng, L. et al. The generation of gridded emissions data for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 461–482 (2020).
Google Scholar
Spiller, E., Proville, J., Roy, A. & Muller, N. Z. Mortality risk from PM2:5: a comparison of modeling approaches to identify disparities across racial/ethnic groups in policy outcomes. Environ. Health Perspect. 129, 127004 (2021).
Google Scholar
O’Neill, M. S. et al. Health, wealth, and air pollution: advancing theory and methods. Environ. Health Perspect. 111, 1861–1870 (2003).
Google Scholar
A conversation on the impacts and mitigation of air pollution. Nat. Commun. 12, 5823 (2021).
Liu, J. Y. et al. The importance of socioeconomic conditions in mitigating climate change impacts and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 014010 (2020).
Google Scholar
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The effect of education on determinants of climate change risks. Nat. Sustain. 3, 520–528 (2020).
Google Scholar
Peng, W. et al. Climate policy models need to get real about people – here’s how. Nature 594, 174–176 (2021).
Google Scholar
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
Google Scholar
Lamontagne, J. R. et al. Large ensemble analytic framework for consequence-driven discovery of climate change scenarios. Earths Future 6, 488–504 (2018).
Google Scholar
van Vuuren, D. P. et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109, 5–31 (2011).
Google Scholar
Kriegler, E. et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions. Clim. Change 122, 401–414 (2014).
Google Scholar
Tebaldi, C. et al. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6. Earth Syst. Dyn. 12, 253–293 (2021).
Google Scholar
Riahi, K. et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
Google Scholar
Bauer, N. et al. Shared socio-economic pathways of the energy sector – quantifying the narratives. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 316–330 (2017).
Google Scholar
Turnock, S. T. et al. Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 20, 14547–14579 (2020).
Google Scholar
KC, S. & Lutz, W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 181–192 (2017).
Google Scholar
Jones, B. & O’Neill, B. C. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 084003 (2016).
Google Scholar
Jones, B. & O’Neill, B. C. Global Population Projection Grids Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), 2010–2100 (NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, 2017); https://doi.org/10.7927/H4RF5S0P
Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) Results (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2018); http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool
Hughes, B. B. et al. Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model. Bull. World Health Organ. 89, 478–486 (2011).
Google Scholar
Cohen, A. J. et al. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015. Lancet 389, 1907–1918 (2017).
Google Scholar
Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).
Google Scholar
Calvin, K. et al. The SSP4: a world of deepening inequality. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 284–296 (2017).
Google Scholar
[ad_2]
Source link